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Accuracy report card

Every prediction.
Every outcome. On record.

Clarisig logs every disruption probability score before the event resolves. When the window closes, we record the outcome publicly — no cherry-picking, no retroactive adjustments.

Brier score — the standard metric for probability accuracy.
0.00 = perfect  ·  0.25 = random guessing  ·  lower is better
Predictions resolved
 
since launch
Avg. Brier score
 
shipping vertical
Active predictions
 
continuously monitored
Data sources
3
news · vessel tracking · domain research
Live predictions — shipping vertical
Updating...
 
 
 
 
 
 
How it works
01 / INGEST
Live signal collection
Maritime news and vessel tracking data ingested every 2 hours from global sources. Each headline classified for severity, direction, and location relevance by our proprietary signal extraction engine.
02 / SCORE
Calibrated probability
Signals are weighted by severity, recency, and direction — then applied against researched domain base rates to produce a calibrated probability with a confidence band. Not a sentiment score. A number you can act on. Scored throughout the day as signals emerge.
03 / RESOLVE
Weekly outcome logging
Each Thursday, prediction windows close. Outcomes are verified against public news records by a human analyst and logged here immediately. Brier scores accumulate into a permanent track record.

Access the Clarisig API

Real-time disruption probability scores delivered via REST API. Integrate into your risk models, dashboards, or operational systems. Contact us to discuss access and pricing.

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All probabilities are generated by an automated signal-weighted model and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Past accuracy does not guarantee future performance. Brier scores are computed using standard methodology: (probability − outcome)². Outcomes are determined by human review of public news sources. © 2026 Clarisig · hello@clarisig.com