Live beta predictions — shipping vertical
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Location-Specific Accuracy Scores (Beta Sample)
Verified Outcomes Log
Window Closed
Location
Opening Prob
Outcome
Brier Score
How it works
01 / INGEST
Live signal collection
Maritime news and vessel tracking data ingested from global sources where available. Each headline classified for severity, direction, and location relevance by our proprietary signal extraction engine.
02 / SCORE
Beta probability
Signals are weighted by severity, recency, and direction — then applied against researched domain base rates to produce a probability with an evidence-width indicator (not a calibrated confidence interval). Not a sentiment score. Scores are refreshed on a scheduled basis from processed evidence; the pipeline is in beta and freshness is shown per corridor.
03 / RESOLVE
Weekly outcome logging
Each Thursday, prediction windows close. Outcomes are verified against public news records by a human analyst and logged here immediately. Brier scores accumulate into a permanent track record.
How outcomes are verified
A prediction resolves TRUE if any of the following occurred during the resolution window. It resolves FALSE if none are met — regardless of news volume or probability score.
01
Official closure or restriction
A port authority, canal authority, or coast guard issues a formal advisory, NOTAM, or closure notice affecting transit at the location.
02
Vessel diversion at scale
Three or more vessels publicly reroute away from the location, as reported by mainstream maritime news sources.
03
Incident causing 24h+ delay
A confirmed incident causes measurable delays of 24 or more hours, reported by at least two independent sources.
04
Insurance market response
War risk or cargo insurance premiums increase by 20% or more during the resolution window.
Verification sources
Lloyd's List
TradeWinds
Splash247
IMB Piracy
Port bulletins
Reuters / AP
BETA LIMITATION WARNING
The current accuracy dataset is in beta. Coverage is incomplete, historical methodologies are mixed, and the audit table is under active review. The recorded Brier scores must not be marketed or utilized as a validated all-system calibration measure.
Access the API
Disruption probability scores delivered via REST API. Beta access is free — integrate into your risk models, dashboards, or operational systems in exchange for a monthly feedback call.